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Carson Gale

Will any Manifund proposal be funded at a $100K+ valuation by end of 2023?28%

Carson Gale

Will any Manifund proposal be funded at a $1M+ valuation by end of 2023?10%

Saul Munn

Will Manifund have another impact certificate funding round in 2023?66%

Brian T. Edwards

Will projects funded via Manifund be able to issue additional impact certificates for sale on the platform in 2023?67%

Isaac

Will the Founder's Pledge's "total value pledged" be over $8 billion at the end of 2023?89%

Carson Gale

Will there be more insider-led funding rounds in 2023?57%

DismalScientist

Will GiveWell fund/recommend cash grants to high-growth microentrepreneurs by January 2028?32%

Jonas Vollmer

Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?65%

Writer

Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 5 million USD in 2025?55%

Nathan Young

Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2030?46%

Gavriel

Will a nonprofit receive funding through charity equity/impact certificates by the end of 2023?90%

Nathan Young

Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2025?25%

Nathan Young

Will GiveWell get a new $100M (inflation-adjusted) donor before 2030?83%

Tom Shlomi

How will the ACX/Manifund Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants oracular funding be distributed?

CRFP

What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025?5.5M

Lars Doucet

Will the Unstable Diffusion team be able to complete their fundraise through alternate means within a year?92%

Writer

Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 30 million USD in 2025?51%

Nathan Young

Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?9%

Nathan Young

Will GiveWell get a new $100M (inflation-adjusted) cumulative donor before 2025?60%

Writer

Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 1 million USD in 2025?65%