Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will I read a serious book for its own sake in the next 2 months?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ24
Jul 18
68%
chance

Resolves YES if, between May 19, 2026 and July 19, 2026, I have begun self-directed reading of a book that is

  1. not heavily related to AI, EA, or rationalist-community topics as subject matter; and

  2. not a functional/instrumental book (not read primarily for skill acquisition or practical application);

and either (a) finished it or (b) am still actively reading it at resolution time.

Otherwise, the market resolves NO at closing.

Notes: “Finish” is defined by my own standards, full cover-to-cover reading is not required; substantive engagement with the core of the work counts.

Other context:

Over the past 12 months, I’ve averaged ~4 books/month across roughly 8 of those 12 months that generally fit this definition, However, only ~1/3 of that reading was self-directed; the other ~2/3 was driven by external structure that I no longer have in the resolution window. Forecasters without inside-view context should expect to be at a strong information disadvantage.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Lmk if you'd like book recommendations