Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
What portion of minifest attendees will say minifest was too short?
1
Ṁ125Ṁ5
May 31
49.1 %
expected
26%
<25%
26%
25–50%
26%
51–75%
23%
75%+

Background:

minifest is a Manifest-style pre-Manifest unconference I'm hosting on Sunday, May 31, 2026, at Mox, from 12–6 PM (6 hours). I selected this length because it seemed like enough time for 3-4 unconference session blocks plus unstructured social time. These markets are an attempt to find out whether this was the correct judgement.

Related market: What portion of attendees will say minifest was too long?

Resolution criteria (both markets):

The post-event feedback form will include a question along the lines of:

"How did the length of Minifest feel to you? (Too short / Just right / Too long)"

  • Market 1 resolves to: (Too long responses) ÷ (total responses to this question) × 100%, rounded to the nearest whole number.

  • Market 2 resolves to: (Too short responses) ÷ (total responses to this question) × 100%, rounded to the nearest whole number.

Details:

  • Only attendees who actually showed up count

  • Non-responders are excluded from the denominator.

  • Minimum sample threshold: each market resolves N/A if fewer than 1/3 of attendees respond to the form.

  • I commit to reporting raw percentages in good faith.

If I do not end up administering a post-event feedback form, or minifest does not happen, the market will resolve N/A.

Resolves by: June 3, 2026.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!