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MANIFOLD
What portion of minifest attendees would express a wish that minifest offered dinner instead of lunch?
1
Ṁ125Ṁ20
May 31
57.8 %
expected
18%
<25%
18%
25–50%
31%
51–75%
34%
75%+

Resolution criteria:

This market resolves to a percentage: the share of surveyed minifest attendees who indicate they would have preferred dinner at the end of the event over lunch at the beginning.

The outcome will be determined by a survey conducted via a post-event form, which will be finalized and announced to attendees before the event begins. It will include a question along the lines of: "Would you have preferred minifest offer dinner at the end of the event instead of lunch at the beginning?" with response options Yes / No / No preference.

The resolution value is calculated as:

(Number of "Yes" responses) ÷ (Number of "Yes" + "No" responses) × 100

Details:

  • Excluded responses: "No preference" responses and individuals who did not respond to the survey

  • Eligibility: Only attendees of the May 31, 2026, event are eligible to fill out the survey; RSVPs who do not attend are excluded.

  • Sample Size: If fewer than 1/3 of the total attendees respond to the survey, the market will resolve N/A.

  • Rounding: The final percentage will be rounded to the nearest whole number.

I commit to reporting the survey results in good faith.

This market will Close at 4 PM, May 31rd, 2026 (2/3 through the event)

Background:

minifest is a Manifest-style-pre-Manifest unconference / gathering I'm hosting at Mox on Sunday, May 31, 2026, from 12–6 PM. As part of the event, I've decided to offer lunch at the beginning rather than dinner at the end. My reasoning is that unconferences can be mentally demanding, and being hungry (or worse, unknowingly hungry, as I likely would have been) generally decreases one's experience.

The counterargument is that dinner at the end is the more conventional choice for evening-ish events: it gives people a natural reason to linger, extends the social tail of the event, and avoids the potential awkwardness of arriving and immediately eating before you've talked to anyone. I think the front-loaded-fuel benefit outweighs this, but I'd like to find out whether attendees agree.

Market context
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