Will November 2024 pass with no missile alarms in Haifa city?
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Plus
24
แน€7269
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
NO

following the beginning of operation "Northern Arrows" and the escalation in Israel-Hezbbolah war, there is an increased concern that this might be a prolonged situation, and Hezbullah will continue to launch missles\rockets\UAV to Israel.


In order to quantify the de-escaltion (that hopefully will follow), I have set a measured quantity of 0 alarms in Haifa City (and the Krayot area) in November.

This Question will Resolve NO, if there will be at least one alarm in the Haifa area, in November, according to Israel Homefront:
https://www.oref.org.il/eng/alerts-history

Otherwise, this question resolves YES

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There were alarms in Haifa:

@VonGadke
yep
i will resolve as No.
do you think we should do another market to february

@CarmelHadar why not? even though I'm pretty pessimistic in this regard, the question makes sense as a proxy of the escalation.

its funny that i needed you for resolving this, I live in haifa :)

Im also quite pessimistic, i would guess maybe 3 months more, something like that

What a nice AI picture!

Amazing how little the assassination in Nasrallah matters for this market

@CarmelHadar I'm just really low on mana...

bought แน€50 NO

@CarmelHadar I think it roughly balances out (increased motive but reduced capacity) over this horizon

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