1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ186 | |
| 2 | Ṁ50 | |
| 3 | Ṁ27 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
FedWatch predicts 13.5% chance of a hike next meeting: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
@BarrDetwix Bro that prediction means nothing... the NFP, CPI, and Core PCE data still need to be released first.
@Cap If it means nothing then neither do any other predictions. Your own predictions are presumably predicated on how you think this economic data will come out - this is also the case for those trading interest rate futures.
@chrisjbillington What do you mean? The FedWatch odds are based on old economic data and market expectations. New ones are about to be released in the following weeks. If you're going to blindly follow the FedWatch tool, why not do it when the major important data like CPI comes out? I bought yes because I believe inflation is going to rise again and the risk-reward is in my favor.
I bought yes because I believe inflation is going to rise again and the risk-reward is in my favor.
This is the exact reasoning interest rate futures traders are also taking part in. What makes you think your expectations of inflation increasing and considerations of risk/reward are better than theirs?
Obviously the futures markets will be more accurate after more economic data is in. But so will your own predictions.
Both are based on forecasts for how that data will come out, so by taking a position different to the futures market, you're implicitly taking a different position on inflation.
Why do you think inflation will be above consensus expectations in the next release?
(Or the other economic data releases, for that matter. Did you see JOLTs release the other day? It was below expectations and interest rate futures dropped.)
@chrisjbillington watch the oil chart, look at OPEC they're cutting production like crazy... but it seems that i might wrong according to CME😂
@Cap yes, if you want to bet that things are hot and rates will go higher, it seems interest rate futures traders agree with you that it's reasonably likely - but that it will be at one of the two following meetings, not the Sep meeting.