🏅 Top traders

Looks like Trump got 51% of the popular vote, resolving YES:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html

Can a mod please resolve?

@traders Experimental mod clarification, since the creator has deleted their account and this market will likely be modresolved:

"A majority of the vote" means "strictly greater than 50% of the popular vote".

The creator's emphasis on the question being "exactly what it says on the tin" should compel us to follow the literal meaning of the word, even though it's true people often misunderstand its meaning.

Furthermore, in their other markets, the creator is careful to define things fairly precisely, such that they seem the type to want the literal meaning of their markets to be followed.

@chrisjbillington Are you sure you'll actually know the popular vote? At least in the past, it used to be that you never actually knew the popular vote because they don't report those who is under the viability threshold and then recaucus to a different candidate. I also thought they only reported delegates that were allocated based on the proportion of voters in the precinct, although maybe that has changed..

@WrongoPhD Apparently yes: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html

We need confirmation that majority here means 50%+ and not plurality

@thepurplebull Market creator is deleted, so they won't clarify. I think we can assume they meant over 50%.

@Weezing I believe it should mean > 50%. That's what majority means. They didn't ask about "win the caucus".

Related

The polling average right now does not have him getting a majority of the vote

Majority (50+%)? or a plurality (the most)