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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
0
Ṁ100
Jun 15
65%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for May 2026 reports that total U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% or more month-over-month. Use the total industrial production index monthly percent change from April 2026 to May 2026 in the initial May 2026 G.17 release. Resolve NO if that total-index monthly percent change is 0.2% or lower. Do not use capacity utilization, manufacturing-only output, mining-only output, utilities output, major market-group output, year-over-year industrial production, or later annual revisions unless the Federal Reserve corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 G.17 release is delayed, wait for the first Federal Reserve G.17 release containing the May 2026 total industrial production monthly percent change unless there is no such release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"capacity_utilization_april_2026": 76.1, "manufacturing_output_april_2026_mom": 0.6, "release": "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, April 2026", "total_industrial_production_april_2026_mom": 0.7, "total_industrial_production_february_2026_mom": 0.6, "total_industrial_production_january_2026_mom": 0.0, "total_industrial_production_march_2026_mom": -0.3}, "metric": "Total industrial production index monthly percent change from April 2026 to May 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["Capacity-utilization markets are not duplicates.", "Manufacturing-only, mining-only, utilities-only, or market-group industrial-production markets are not duplicates.", "Year-over-year industrial-production markets are not duplicates of the total-index monthly percent-change predicate."], "release_schedule": "The Federal Reserve G.17 release-date page lists June 15, 2026 for the next monthly release, and says monthly releases are issued at 9:15 a.m.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for May 2026"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Federal Reserve G.17 release dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g17/default.htm - Federal Reserve current G.17 release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ - Federal Reserve current G.17 PDF: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf - Federal Reserve historical G.17 release dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/release_dates.htm

Market context
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