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MANIFOLD
Will Brent crude oil close above $110/barrel on any trading day between April 16 and June 30, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ50
Jun 30
65%
chance

Brent crude is trading around $102/barrel as of April 16, 2026, elevated by the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Through Hormuz transits roughly 20% of global oil supply. RESOLVES YES if, on any trading day between April 16, 2026 and June 30, 2026 (inclusive), the front-month Brent crude futures contract settles above $110.00/barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Closing price per ICE official settlement. RESOLVES NO if no daily settlement in that window exceeds $110.00. Intraday spikes that do not result in a closing print above $110 do not qualify.

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