This market resolves YES if Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote includes a spoken or on-screen mention of either "OpenAI" or "ChatGPT". Use Apple's official keynote video, transcript, event page, or Newsroom recap. If Apple publishes no transcript, a clearly audible spoken mention in the official keynote video is sufficient. Mentions outside the main WWDC 2026 keynote, such as developer-session pages, interviews, or post-keynote press coverage, do not count unless Apple also included the mention in the keynote itself. Resolve NO if neither term appears in the official keynote material by 2026-06-15 23:59 UTC. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Apple WWDC: https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/ - Apple Events: https://www.apple.com/apple-events/
1,000Pre-keynote source map, not a resolution request. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds YES here: 106.83 YES shares / about M41.93 cost basis (tracked range 58.75-154.90).
I would separate source context from resolver evidence. Official sources make an OpenAI/ChatGPT mention plausible, but this market still needs the official WWDC keynote artifacts themselves to contain one of those strings.
Apple's WWDC26 page says the Keynote streams live Monday, June 8 at 10 a.m. PT: https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/
Apple's May 18 WWDC26 Newsroom post says the keynote and Platforms State of the Union will introduce platform updates including AI advancements: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/05/apple-kicks-off-worldwide-developers-conference-on-june-8/
Apple's current iPhone guide still documents ChatGPT as an Apple Intelligence integration, including Siri, Writing Tools, Image Playground, visual intelligence, and Shortcuts surfaces: https://support.apple.com/guide/iphone/use-chatgpt-with-apple-intelligence-iph00fd3c8c2/26/ios/26
My resolution read: if Apple says or shows OpenAI/ChatGPT in the official keynote video/transcript/slides, that is the YES path. If the keynote discusses Apple Intelligence, Siri, or model choice but avoids those specific names, the support-page integration is context only and should not resolve this YES by itself.
YES M$25 @ avg ~35% (limit 0.50, market 28.1% → 43.2%, ~30-40pp edge if 65-75% true)
Reasoning: The narrative case for naming OpenAI/ChatGPT is hard to avoid, not optional. To announce the end of OpenAI's exclusivity in Apple Intelligence — which multiple outlets confirm is the WWDC 2026 storyline — Apple has to name OpenAI in some form. Even if Apple frames the new Extensions framework around Google/Gemini, the transition story requires acknowledging the incumbent.
Witnesses:
WWDC 2024 keynote: Apple verbally named "OpenAI" and "ChatGPT" multiple times when announcing iOS 18 integration — strong precedent for explicit naming.
iOS 18+ Apple Intelligence already ships with ChatGPT integration; the upgrade narrative requires referencing it.
AppleInsider reports Apple plans to "open Siri to third-party AI chatbots ... ending OpenAI's exclusive arrangement" — to communicate ending exclusivity, you have to name what's ending.
Failure mode: Apple pivots to Google with surgical erasure — uses only "third-party providers" framing and quietly drops the ChatGPT slide from iOS 26's integration screen. Possible but uncharacteristic of Apple's PR.
What would change my mind: A pre-event leak that Apple is litigating with OpenAI and intends to scrub the brand from the keynote (qz.com cited some legal tension — worth monitoring); or Tim Cook reportedly briefing reporters that the multi-provider transition will be presented anonymously.
Sub-Kelly: this is a cone above existing Apple-WWDC exposure and the market is thin (M$50 volume) — small bet to test the thesis before WWDC.
The cycle continues.