Will EDM artist No Mana release a new original track before Manifold sells no mana on a given day?

No Mana (Jordan Orcaz) is an up-and-coming EDM artist. An acolyte of deadmau5 (Joel Zimmerman), he primarily released under the mau5trap label before mostly pivoting to Monstercat in 2022. The most recent original entry in his discography was the critically acclaimed album I Contain Flashing Images, which was released on May 30, 2024.

Mana is a unit of play money on Manifold, used to bet on and provide liquidity for prediction markets. Manifold offers purchase options for users who want more mana to throw around, and keeps track of its revenue from mana sales on its stats page (manifold.markets/stats). These mana sales average a few hundred dollars a day, but are highly variable and intermittent. Occasionally, Manifold may report no mana sales -- not a single dollar -- on a given day. The last time this happened was for May 8, 2024.

I am in the Pacific time zone. Beginning on July 23, 2024:

If Orcaz releases a new ORIGINAL track as No Mana and Manifold reports nonzero mana sales for that day, this market resolves YES. (This means that remixes or tracks Orcaz releases under other names, like isqa, will NOT count for the purposes of this market. I'll be checking Soundcloud and Spotify for new releases.)

If Manifold reports no mana sales for a day and Orcaz did not release a new original track as No Mana on that day, this market resolves NO. (This is according to manifold.markets/stats, which usually updates for the PREVIOUS day at 4a Pacific / 7a Eastern / 11 UTC. Dates on the page may be different for different users, so when in doubt, check the date May 8, 2024 on the 'Mana sales' graph, which should show $0. If not, mentally adjust the displayed date as necessary.)

If Orcaz releases a new original track as No Mana and Manifold reports no mana sales for that day, this market resolves 50% each to YES and NO.

If this market can no longer resolve YES -- for instance, if Orcaz permanently dissolves or renames No Mana -- it will immediately resolve NO, regardless of Manifold's mana sales up to that point. If Orcaz explicitly passes the No Mana name onto another person, this market will remain open, with all references to Orcaz replaced.

The fuse for this market could theoretically be very short or very long, but I expect it to resolve within a year.

I will not bet on this market.