Both of these will be from the now official presidential election market. Trump No will be interpreted as Kamala Yes if that remains reasonable. Feel free to debate this in the comments upon close so I can get a definitive answer if it's difficult. Equal odds will resolve No.
Reference market:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ190 | |
| 2 | Ṁ57 | |
| 3 | Ṁ38 | |
| 4 | Ṁ35 | |
| 5 | Ṁ34 |
People are also trading
can any of the @mods resolve this based on their judgement? this creator seems not to be active any more
@PoliticalEconomyPK @CainanKeyles It's not clear if this is a point in time at a specific part of that date, or an average over the whole date, or "at any moment". I would defer to the creator's judgement in this case, but they haven't been active for a few weeks.
End of day, both US Eastern and US Pacific time: Kamala had 53% on Sweepcash and 55% on Mana -- would resolve No
Average for the whole day, in US Pacific time zone: Kamala had about 54.4% on Sweepcash (17 hours at 55% and 7 hours at 53%) and about 54.6% on Mana (9 hours at 54% and 15 hours at 55%) -- would resolve No, but it's also within a single percent and it says 'equal odds will resolve No'.....not sure what that means
Any point in the day: Just after 5pm Pacific, Kamala was at 56% on Sweepcash and 54% on Mana -- would resolve Yes