Flipping my bet again, given that DWAC did manage to extend the merger and looks like it will survive 2023.

Edit: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523207492/d508117dex991.htm

This market is consistently a few percentage points below the other "Trump tweet" markets. If you are a YES buyer sell your positions in the other markets and buy here for a free 2%

Recent interview with trump (from June 26) scroll to the 14:00 he is asked:: "...Would you go back to twitter?"
- NewsMax interview with Trump
- Trump Praises Elon Musk but Asserts "Truth Social" Will Outshine Twitter

I've changed my belief on this based on learning how large the potential financial interest is in the SPAC and how likely I now believe the merger will fail: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023#nlQM6ow3g4Wm8FENKOXR

Donald Trump’s return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?

45% chance. Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump’s verified Twitter account (@realD…

@parhizj https://www.axios.com/2023/06/28/trump-twitter-return-presidential-campaign

Trump plots Twitter return

He has a financial incentive to keep the rage flowing on Truth Social, but the election is calling.

• On SEC financial disclosure forms, Trump has listed TMTG's value as $5 million to $25 million.

This is somewhat misleading to someone reading, because the potential value from a merger will be much higher.

The most relevant quote for me, from "From a business perspective, it’s very smart he’s only on Truth. From a political perspective, he needs to be on Twitter."

The article doesn't discuss how large the potential financial interest is but from what I've read it is very large (at current value of the stock, hundreds of millions or more) even accounting for dilution of his shares (according to others' calculations).

I'm surprised this market has been a pretty stable coin toss. I think Trump is a man of his word in this case and will stick to truth social this year but not because of principles or being scorned, but because "his people" are all already on there and that might be all he needs in another crowded primary where he can go hog wild with his base. So, I am betting no.

So, is trump actually still under contract and isn't allowed to tweet or what is it that's stopping him from tweeting now? I read that it isn't until june that he would be able to tweet. I'm not sure though, the thing I read was dated back in January. Does anyone have any recent information this?

@higherLEVELING He can tweet, but there are terms which restrict him from posting to Twitter first. It needs to be staggered like 6 hours unless it’s explicitly political I believe. The SEC filings were cited in one of the duplicate markets which contain the real info

@Gen Oh okay I have seen those markets. It just seemed like he had the opportunity to take some of the spotlight off of desantis during the twitter announcement if he had just tweeted. There are other moments that seem like the perfect time for him to return to twitter, so I just thought there must be something that was stopping him from tweeting. But you're saying he is allowed to tweet. He has the ability to, but is choosing not to. I guess as time passes, there's a chance that he might change his mind and go back on twitter.

Hes posting on instagram... just one more hop over to twitter
https://twitter.com/RampCapitalLLC/status/1661577492304371712

i feel like if he was going to post on twitter, he would have done that before posting on instagram or atleast posted at the same time.

@higherLEVELING https://twitter.com/TitterDaily/status/1661586024705785856

@Blomfilter - ehhh...idk. Elon has abandoned Trump for DeSantis (DeSantis got to announce his campaign on Elon/Twitter's shiny new Twitter Spaces) and everyone knows how Trump loves to hold a grudge. The fact that the easiest way to spite the richest man in the world is to not use Twitter might mean Trump goes full Meta.

@LukasDay Unless... DeSantis launch self-implosion was Elon's master plan for Trump?

@Gen - Dang. Made that classic Clinton/DeSantis blunder - forgot for a second Trump plays 5D chess 🧠🧠🧠

"Mr. Trump’s aides have signaled for months that he plans to return to Twitter sooner rather than later." https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1661099071468085252

Does it have to be @realdonaldtrump?

@GeorgeVii that says 2015

Duplicate markets: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023 and https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/21-will-donald-trump-make-at-least