Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of September?
resolved Oct 7

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950 million as of early October, so this should resolve as NO - I'll do it in a few days if I remember to.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily wait was there any communication between you or grey about you resolving his question?

@MichelleHao No, but according to site policy, trustworthy-ish users may resolve markets if the creator has been inactive on Manifold for at least a week, and Grey hasn't used the site in the past six months.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily I see, unfortunately I thought it was grey who resolved the market and made a bad trade on another market :’ ). But thank you for doing good work.

predicted NO

@CGPGrey Resolves NO

948,954,851 views as of Sep 26

predicted YES

Currently the channel is at 923.3 million views

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Linear regression on 9 samples from the last 2 years of growth puts this at 3%.

Here's the data if anyone wants to replicate:

dates = ['Jan 2021', 'Apr 2021', 'Jul 2021', 'Oct 2021', 'Jan 2022', 'Apr 2022', 'Jul 2022', 'Oct 2022', 'Jan 2023']
views = [621e6, 648e6, 687e6, 730e6, 748e6, 782e6, 818e6, 865e6, 891e6]