I think I will, but one never knows.
Full disclosure: I've been wrong the last four days in a row on this question.
Fuller disclosure: I still have to make a 'mini / not real' video to go along with the main video. At time of updating this description (13:34 London) I have not yet finished the script nor recorded the audio for the mini video. In order to not get distracted my prediction markets I will no longer update this description.
And yes it's really me: https://twitter.com/cgpgrey/status/1642491762928230410
13:44: OK One more tiny edit to clarify: The will resolve YES when the MINI video goes up. When that happens in means the main video is locked and loaded. I will not place any more bets once the upload of the mini video has begun.
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@levifinkelstein Why? I just want to see how likely I am to finish the video. That’s how this works, right?
@CGPGrey Full disclosure: You literally created an assassination market on your focus today, and I’m going for it. These conditional markets are supposed to give you something actionable. But the markets above of course only really give you correlation, not the sweet, sweet causation we all crave. But there are some ways around that: https://dynomight.net/prediction-market-causation/
Or could I possibly interest you in a proposed new form of government entirely centered around prediction markets? https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html Some people on here are also currently playing a game of chess with conditional prediction markets: /harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch