"Crime Reduction" by Sashworthhayes
"Crime Reduction" by Sashworthhayes
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600Ṁ621resolved Sep 9
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Will Sashworthhayes's post "Crime Reduction" win first or second place in the Cause Exploration Prizes?
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A highly underrated problem! "A reasonable estimate of the direct costs in terms of harm and crime prevention is in the region of 7-11% of US GDP. Once broader costs such as urban sprawl and foregone investment are factored in, the cost of crime is likely to be significantly higher. "
Unfortunately, tractability looks pretty weak. Being able to identify reforms which would reduce crime and being able to translate those reforms into policy changes are two very different things!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.