MEDIA7: Encouraging higher vaccination rates through mobile interventions
36
759
1.2k
resolved Jul 10
Resolved
YES

As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Encouraging higher vaccination rates through mobile interventions" as a top Mass Media intervention?

Idea overview

Vaccinations are among the most cost-effective ways to prevent mortality and morbidity from transmissible diseases. Yet, many children don’t receive all the vaccines they should, which results in over a million children dying from vaccine-preventable diseases every year. This organization would focus on scaling evidence-based strategies for increasing childhood vaccination rates in sub-Saharan Africa.

Mass media interventions

By ‘mass media’ intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.

About the contest

In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected

  • You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.

  • You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.

For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted NO

Can resolve YES

predicted YES

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predicted NO

This is a really solid idea that seems just slightly less likely than the market is predicting. While this is similar to numerous interventions that are already present and there are concerns with the cost of these vaccines, this is still a solid idea that can definitely find room in the space. However, other ideas are good enough that it seems as though this intervention is slightly overvalued.

This might get caught in the trap where the simple version is tractable, but not neglected, and the sophisticated version (keeping track of each patient eligibility and availability) is not tractable, but IS neglected.

Does anybody know whether there are significant restrictions around storing medical data in the target countries? In the United States, complying with HIPAA would add a huge amount of complexity to what could be a simple CRUD+Twilio app.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

This is kind of vague but seems like a decent idea. I assume it looks something like building a messaging system that doctors can use when somebody gets vaccinated to send them a reminder of future vaccines. Vaccines definitely seem good and charities that get people vaccinated have traditionally been endorsed by EA. My biggest concern is that this could be a better side project for a charity already doing stuff with vaccines than for an entirely new charity.

I strongly suspect media-promotion of vaccines isn't particularly neglected

@jacksonpolack generally not neglected, but seemingly neglected at a detailed level. Vaccine schedules are a lot to keep track of:
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/adult.html
and the secondary effects of infections like drastically increased chances of Alzheimer's and cancer seem surprisingly unknown to the general public:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oncovirus

bought Ṁ15 of YES

GPT-4 ranked this #1 of the 10