Resolution criteria

The FOMC's December interest rate decision is scheduled for December 10, 2025. The market resolves based on the Fed's official announcement of its target federal funds rate decision:

• Fed Will CUT Rates By 25BPs: Federal funds rate target range lowered by 0.25 percentage points

• Fed Will CUT Rates By 50BPs: Federal funds rate target range lowered by 0.50 percentage points

• Fed Will HOLD Rates: Federal funds rate target range unchanged

• Fed Will HIKE Rates: Federal funds rate target range raised

Resolution source: Federal Reserve official press release

Background

In October 2025, the Fed lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut. Chair Jerome Powell stated that another rate cut at the December 10 meeting "isn't a foregone conclusion", signaling significant uncertainty about the path forward.

Goldman Sachs Research sees signs that weakness in the US job market "is genuine" and does not expect the picture to change enough by the December meeting for the FOMC to stop cutting. However, 84% of CNBC survey respondents see another 25 basis point reduction in December, though this reflects market expectations rather than certainty.

Considerations

There were "strongly differing views" on how to proceed in December among FOMC members. The October decision drew two dissents—one from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who backed a larger half-point cut, and another from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who preferred to hold borrowing costs steady. This internal division underscores genuine debate about the appropriate policy stance.