Sorry for taking so long to resolve this. I would resolve it NO, but the market Shump linked in the comment below had very similar criteria and resolved YES based on the "true numbers" and not what was displayed on the leaderboard. So I think it would be unfair to resolve it NO when that market created an expectation that this one will resolve differently. It would also be unfair to resolve YES because most people expected it to resolve based on the profit graph, as displayed at midnight. So, I will resolve it to N/A.

Officially, @ButtocksCocktoasten's profit was -601 at midnight. It still says this is true if I put my cursor over the profit graph on the profile page, and the screenshot taken on midnight also shows this. It is true true that the profit would have been positive if it had updated in response to trades made just before midnight, but I don't know if that should factor into the resolution. Do you think I should resolve it to a percent instead of no?

@ButtocksCocktwosten I think this should either resolve to NO (based on the profit graph) or resolve to N/A.

@ButtocksCocktwosten Look at the discussion on this market's resolution, which also came down to Manifold statistics updating. I got upset there that the market resolved not to what showed in the official stats, but following that and the fact that people didn't seem to agree with me, I expected this market to also resolve by the true numbers .

This should resolve yes, as the profit at the stated time was positive, regardless of Manifold updates. At midnight, the Eliezer rationalussy market was at 57%, as shown in the picture, which gives an expected value of @ButtocksCocktoasten's bet of 72,088, and a profit of ~2000. This is also suggested by the profit graph, even though the graph took a while to update

@Shump Your mistake was assuming that the bets you made would immediately cause BC's profit to change. It generally takes about 15 minutes for a change in a market to register on the profit graph.

@ButtocksCocktwosten Resolves NO.