Will there be a well-recognized letter/statement on rationalussy by August 31, 2023?
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resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if there is a letter released about rationalussy and the possible effects it may have or policies surrounding it by the end of August 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.

We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in rationalussy, and at least one Rationalussy Award winner.

A public figurehead in rationalussy is defined as anyone who meets any of these qualifications:

  • Top 10 creator in the Rationalussy group

  • Top 5 trader in the Rationalussy group

  • Recipient of the Rationalussy Award

  • Recipient of the Manifold rationalussy badge, if it is ever created

  • At least 69% of people in a poll agree that they have made major contributions to rationalussy discourse

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predicted YES

No statement again? 😭

soldṀ69NO
predicted NO

While in the process of writing the Rationalussy Wiki, I realized another overlooked figurehead in rationalussy. Martin Randall clearly contributed to rationalussy discourse by creating this market: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/what-is-the-best-definition-of-rati

predicted YES
bought Ṁ69 of YES

In case tragedy strikes

Has a statement been written? My fingers are itching to sign it (only if it is up to very high and rationalussy standards obviously)

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@dgga Maybe if the probability gets lower

Consider it signed by me, I will endorse rationalussy

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I volunteer as a rationalussy figurehead

@inerati You’re the top trader on the Rationalussy leaderboard: https://manifold.markets/group/rationalussy?r=RGFuTWFuMzE0

so you already make the cut for this letter

predicted YES

The polls are in! @levifinkelstein, @TheWiggleMan, and @ManualBlinking are all officially considered big public figureheads in rationalussy:

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-levifinkelstein-made-major-cont

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-thewiggleman-made-major-contrib

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-manualblinking-made-major-contr

The other three candidates I have polled so far did not break the required 69% in their polls:

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-conflux-made-major-contribution

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-johnsmith9be-made-major-contrib

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-stralor-made-major-contribution

However, @Conflux is currently tied for 10th place on the Rationalussy creator leaderboard, so he still counts as a public figurehead in rationalussy. Also, I realize that I mistyped @JohnSmithb9be's username in that poll, so maybe I should rerun it, since people may have voted No after clicking on the username and seeing the 404 error. I will see what traders think of this.

I am currently running three more polls for potential candidates!

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-flaffen-made-major-contribution

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-eliezeryudkowski-made-major-con

/ButtocksCocktoasten/has-mira-made-major-contributions-t

predicted YES

@ButtocksCocktoasten FLAFFEN, Yudkowski, and Mira all broke the 69% threshold in their polls, so they are considered public figures in rationalussy as well!

predicted YES

I would like to nominate Conflux as having made major contributions to rationalussy discourse. Today, he revealed that Manifold's wifi password is "rationalussy" on the Market Manipulation podcast.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Actually, pretty much everyone who was nominated for the First Rationalussy Award and isn't already a "public figure in rationalussy" should be considered. Especially Levi, the Wiggle Man, John Smith, and Manual Blinking. Maybe Mira as well for creating the market that led to Levi's name change.

@JosephNoonan this is indeed the case

I was hoping this would resolve YES if there was a well-recognized statement written on a physical rationalussy.

How does one receive a Rationalussy Award?

@ShadowyZephyr It is awarded to people who show outstanding dedication to rationalussy