Will there be a well-recognized letter/statement on rationalussy by September 31, 2023?
32
590Ṁ6710
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if there is a letter released about rationalussy and the possible effects it may have or policies surrounding it by the end of September 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.

We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in rationalussy, and at least one Rationalussy Award winner.

A public figurehead in rationalussy is defined as anyone who meets any of these qualifications:

  • Top 10 creator in the Rationalussy group

  • Top 5 trader in the Rationalussy group

  • Recipient of the Rationalussy Award

  • Recipient of the Manifold rationalussy badge, if it is ever created

  • At least 69% of people in a poll agree that they have made major contributions to rationalussy discourse

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predictedYES

It is with a tear in my eye that I mourn the passage of yet another month without a rationalussy statement. Yet a glimmer of hope remains, that perhaps there will be one this month.

predictedNO

@Mira Do you know something we don't?

@EliTyre if I knew something you didn't in this market, I wouldn't tell you.

@DanielFilan Yeah. That's just like you.

predictedNO

Is there a work in progress for a statement?

predictedNO

@CollectedOverSpread No motivation to make a statement when the probability is still so high

So... category leaderboards were just removed, which means that there aren't enough "public figureheads in rationalussy" anymore for this to resolve YES.

@JosephNoonan I got you covered: I asked @ian to implement this feature a couple days ago for exactly this sort of reason.

https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=rationalussy

Leaderboards
Manifold's leaderboards show the top traders, question creators, and referrers.

@Mira Dang, now the screwy new category system just lost me a bunch of mana.

@JosephNoonan And by "a bunch" I mean only 46, but still

@Mira Is there any way to access the leaderboards aside from tying in the link?

@JosephNoonan Nvm, I see how to do it.

predictedNO

I just realized that the title says "September 31" which is a nonexistent date. Since the description says "end of September" I will assume this is just a typo.

predictedNO

I'm holding my NO position for now, but if the market is this confident I'll be looking forward to this statement.

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