3 months? I recommend that it be shorter (except that the change would warp the market linked below, but if that resolves first shortening to a week or four should be fine) because the opportunity cost of staking mana for months is high. Alternatively you could state that you'll provide limit orders to let people exit with little friction when the answer becomes predictable to you.

@Gurkenglas hmm. What if I just cut down the time to 2 weeks on this market as well. would that be an ok solution? i'm still figuring this sh*t out 😂

that works! there are all sorts of strange incentive effects you can get if you try less straightforward stuff like "this market closes when that one does" - in that example the poll outcome would be known as soon as the poll is 6:0.

(imo the first rule of thumb for taking an administrative action as a market creator is: it's fine iff it doesn't impact the market outcome. as other people come to rely on, for example, your market's close date, it becomes more iffy to change it. changing the poll close date technically can impact the outcome, but if nobody can predict which way, nobody's incentives get messed up.)

((although: if i can predict that you will be taking random administrative actions at random times that reveal evidence in an unpredictable direction a second later, i'm incentivized not to post a limit order (e.g. "standing offer to buy up to 100 YES at 20%") because they only get filled if the evidence comes out NO ^^))

@Gurkenglas This is all so new to me. You've given me a lot to think about. I appreciate it