This question resolves YES if there are credible reports of threats of violence due to favorable votes for Israel at the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest. People who would resolve this YES if they were targeted include, but are not limited to, contest jury members. It also includes the Israeli performer, Eden Golan, as well as any past performers and anyone in Israel connected to Eurovision (e.g. an employee of KAN, the national broadcaster).
The threat must have been reported within a period beginning at question creation time and 23:59 CEST on June 1 (three weeks after the contest final).
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@DanMan314 thank you. In view of the resolution criteria saying only threats made after the market was created would count, I've resolved NO.
What exactly is a “credible threat”? And it has to be reported by the media. If some rando sends a threat and we think there’s a 1% chance he’ll carry through is that credible? If Israel wins and people protest the judges saying “Eurovision you can’t hide we charge you with genocide” does that count?
I don’t blame you at all here. This is a tricky question to operationalize. But I don’t think I’ll bet on this market.
@nathanwei if someone receives a death threat, reports it to the police, and it gets picked up by the media as "person X was threatened because they voted for Israel", that is a YES. If nothing like that happens, it is a NO. It is not us judging the credibility, it's the authorities – they will decide whether and how to prosecute the crime that is making a death threat.
If Israel wins...
To be very clear, Israel doesn't have to win for this market to resolve YES. (I am not saying you claimed they did.)
...and people protest the judges saying “Eurovision you can’t hide we charge you with genocide” does that count?
Vowing to try to get someone charged with genocide is not a death threat, so no.
@BrunoParga Got it.
Curious what you think the probability is, and what the conditional probabilities are based on Israel winning and Israel not winning. I do think that if Israel does not win the probably is not zero but fairly small (maybe 20-30%), and if Israel does win the probability is not 1 but very large (maybe 90%).
I think one problem with this is that if there are threats, they might be kept under wraps.
@nathanwei I am too emotionally attached to make a decent estimate, but I think you're correct that an Israeli win makes it considerably more likely.