Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google officially announces the public release of Gemini 3.0 (or Gemini 3.0 Pro) via an official Google blog (e.g., Google AI Blog, Google's The Keyword), press release, or official Google AI social media channels, before October 23, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC. The announcement must clearly state that Gemini 3.0 is being made available to a significant portion of its user base or developers.

This market will resolve to "No" if no such official announcement is made by the specified deadline.

Background

Gemini is Google's multimodal AI model. Its previous iteration, Gemini 2.5, was unveiled at Google I/O 2025 in May 2025, which introduced enhanced reasoning capabilities and a "Deep Think" mode. There have been several recent reports and leaks circulating on social media and tech news sites suggesting that Google plans to launch Gemini 3.0 on October 22, 2025. These reports often cite an alleged leaked internal milestone calendar. Some users of Gemini Advanced have reportedly already begun to see upgrade notices to "3.0 Pro," indicating a quiet rollout or internal testing phase.

Considerations

While leaks and user reports suggest an imminent release, one Reddit post from October 12, 2025, stated that Gemini 3.0 Pro is not expected in October or November, with an early December release being the current plan. Traders should consider the difference between a staged rollout or internal testing and an official, public announcement of availability. The definition of "released" for this market specifically focuses on an official public announcement.