Resolution Criteria: The question will be resolved as "Yes" if, before 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2023, at least one of the major credit rating agencies (Moody's, Standard & Poor's, or Fitch Ratings) officially downgrades the credit rating of the United States from its current status. The downgrade must be an actual change in the credit rating, not merely a change in outlook or a placement on downgrade watch.

Clarification on Downgrade Watch: It's important to note that being placed on a downgrade watch or a negative outlook does not constitute a downgrade. The resolution will only be "Yes" if there is an actual downgrade in the credit rating level between Nov 12, 2023 and the end of 2023.

Verification Sources: The resolution will be based on publicly available statements, reports, or press releases issued by Moody's, Standard & Poor's, or Fitch Ratings. News reports from credible financial news sources confirming the downgrade can also be used for verification.

UPDATE: Only applies to downgrades within the timeframe of this market, from Nov. 12, 2023 and the end of 2023. In short, trying to capture additional downgrades this year, beyond those already announced.

UPDATE (12/31/2023): While Moody's lowered the outlook for US debt from stable to negative in November, there has not been a downgrade in the US credit rating since August 2023, which is outside the timeframe of this market (see above), so resolving this as "NO."

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