Will Cillian Murphy receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in Oppenheimer?

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resolved Mar 11

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YES

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This market will resolve YES if Cillian Murphy receives the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role during the year that 'Oppenheimer' is eligible for the Academy Awards. If he does not receive the award, or if 'Oppenheimer' is not eligible for Academy Awards by 2026, this market will resolve NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Entertainment and Pop Culture

#Television & Film

#Movies

#Oscars 2024

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Made fixed-payout markets for best actor and actress:

predicted YES

@Joshua How is fixed payout different from an not fixed payout multiple choice market? If there is a difference.

The long answer is beyond my ability to explain well so I'd refer you to the discord thread introducing it a while back here here.

The short answer is that in fixed-payout there's an "Other" answer that represents the possibility of all answers that haven't been added. You can buy yes or no in any answer including "Other", whereas in the old free response format you could only buy shares and sell shares, you couldn't buy "no" in anything.

I have followed Cillian since Peaky Blinders, consistently brilliant acting! deserves an OSCAR award for Oppenheimer !!

5/5 bretty good

A longshot here, so I'm starting the odds around 20%. I'd put the odds of him getting a nomination at around 75%

@BrendanFinan Lower than that imo. I don’t think a Nolan movie has ever received an acting nomination.

predicted NO

@HoraceHe Heath Ledger won Best Supporting Actor for The Dark Knight

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