Michael's Bot Laboratory's calibration
Grade: A+, Score: -0.13
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Michael's Bot Laboratory bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
- Will GPT-5 be released before July 2024?NOโแน100
- Will Bronny James be drafted in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft?NOโแน100
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOโแน100
20%
30%
40%
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOโแน100
- Is BlackBeard on the ship to EggHead?NOโแน100
- Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of March 2024?NOโแน100
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%