At the last General Election in 2019, the Conservative Party won 13,966,454 votes. This was the highest since John Major’s 1992 victory, and translated into 365 seats: a majority of 80.

The Labour Party, meanwhile, won just 10,269,051 votes. This was the lowest since Ed Milliband’s 2015 loss, and translated into just 202 seats.

The next General Election must be held by 28 January 2025, and is widely expected to be held in the second half of 2024. If the Conservative and Unionist Party wins 10,000,000 votes or more at the next general election, this market will resolve to YES. If it receives less, it will resolve to NO.