Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
Plus
30
Ṁ3702resolved Nov 7
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if 538 releases a presidential election model and if the candidate who the model assigns the greatest chance of winning wins the election. Resolves N/A if no model is released.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@marktweise The model I will go with will be whatever model is whatever model seems to be the one they want people to look at most on the day before the election. So if there are multiple models, I’ll go with whichever they display by default.
Related questions
Related questions
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?
1% chance
Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?
36% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
Which social election "prediction" will correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 election
How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)