MANIFOLD
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
30
Ṁ1kṀ3.7k
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if 538 releases a presidential election model and if the candidate who the model assigns the greatest chance of winning wins the election. Resolves N/A if no model is released.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ467
2Ṁ261
3Ṁ159
4Ṁ121
5Ṁ107
Sort by:

What if they “change their mind”, publish multiple models? Will that last one count? The first one? Majority?

predictedYES

@marktweise The model I will go with will be whatever model is whatever model seems to be the one they want people to look at most on the day before the election. So if there are multiple models, I’ll go with whichever they display by default.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy