Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?

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Ṁ3702resolved Nov 7

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Resolves YES if 538 releases a presidential election model and if the candidate who the model assigns the greatest chance of winning wins the election. Resolves N/A if no model is released.

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@marktweise The model I will go with will be whatever model is whatever model seems to be the one they want people to look at most on the day before the election. So if there are multiple models, I’ll go with whichever they display by default.

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