Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
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18
487
Dec 2
71%
chance

Resolves YES if 538 releases a presidential election model and if the candidate who the model assigns the greatest chance of winning wins the election. Resolves N/A if no model is released.

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What if they “change their mind”, publish multiple models? Will that last one count? The first one? Majority?

predicts YES

@marktweise The model I will go with will be whatever model is whatever model seems to be the one they want people to look at most on the day before the election. So if there are multiple models, I’ll go with whichever they display by default.

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