Which famous people will create a market in 2024?
Basic
25
Ṁ3620
Jan 1
18%
Robin Hanson
16%
Nate Silver
16%
Tracy Alloway
12%
Bryan Caplan
12%
Noah Smith
12%
Martin Shkreli
7%
Vitalik Buterin
6%
Holden Karnofsky
5%
Tom Scott
3%
Kanye West
Resolved
YES
William MacAskill

This question asks which famous people will make a market on Manifold in the 2024 calendar year (in the time zone indicated by the close time). Feel free to add more names, subject to the following constraints:

  • Please only add names of people who have not yet made a market.

  • Please only add names of people who have at least 10k twitter followers or a commensurate amount of fame.

  • Please only add names of people who are the most well-known of people with their name.

Names that don't meet these criteria are subject to N/A.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Kanye West

@Bayesian Believe

bought Ṁ10 Kanye West NO

@grapes I don't. got a limit order at 50% though

Joe Weisenthal is making markets now, so I added his podcast co-host.

@BoltonBailey in what time zone

@Joshua In the time zone suggested by the close time. (Incidentally, I noticed that the close date was 12/30 just now, so I changed it to 12/31)

@BoltonBailey Oh wait I'm illiterate, he made the market today so it doesn't matter. Resolves yes when his identity is confirmed.

@Joshua Dang, can't believe I missed this one!

Potential arbs?

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