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MANIFOLD
Which dates should Manifold encourage users to close their markets on?
16
resolved Feb 5
Fixed periods of time (a week/30 days/365 days) after market creation
At the beginning/end of (week/month/year) regardless of what date the market is created

When you create a market, you currently have these default options for when to close the market

The first three options close the market after a fixed number of days from the market's creation. The last closes the market at the end of the year, regardless of when in the year the market is made.

This poll asks which paradigm would be better if all four options were the same way. That is:

  • Always in 24 hours

  • Always in 7 days

  • Always in 30 days

  • Always in 365 days

Or

  • Always at the end of the day

  • Always at the end of the week

  • Always at the end of the month

  • Always at the end of the year

Argument(s) in favor of making it a fixed number of days:

  • There wouldn't be a massive buildup of markets all resolved at once at the end of the year

Argument(s) in favor of of fixed end dates:

  • Markets are more often directly comparable to other markets

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"Fixed periods of time (a week/30 days/365 days) after market creation" will only work if there is explicit support for "event must happen before/at $TIME in $TIMEZONE" which by default is set the same as close time or something, otherwise people will be even more confused about the distinction between resolution criteria deadlines and market close dates.

I think that could work, but otherwise sticking to clean timepoints like years and months makes sense. The end-of-year thing wasn't as dramatic as I thought it might've been.