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MANIFOLD
What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2033?
11
Ṁ390Ṁ774
2033
18
expected

X = btc/usd on Jan 1 2023 (16605)
Y = btc/usd on Jan 1 2033
Resolves to ((Y/X)^(1/10)-1), interpreted as a percent (for example, 5% annual growth makes a resolution of 5)

If USD ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from USD to the successor currency.
If BTC ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from btc to the successor currency.

If USD ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves to maximum
If BTC ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves to minimum

If AI kills everyone and both cease to exist simultaneously, this uses the last available exchange rate.

Based on /JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal (note that his market is numeric and not amplified)

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The market-implied BTC value in 2033 Y=16605*(1.12)^10=51573 needs a 15% decline in BTC over the next 8.5y.

Just want to clarify something, this is meant to resolve to the numerical value described as a percentage, like the linked market, that's why the lower bound is -30. If anyone who bet already misunderstood that, I'll N/A and remake the market.

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