This is an experimental market structure - it resolves to either 10k or 100k, whichever price bitcoin hits first. Because this is structured as a numeric market with log scaling, if the log BTC/USD price is an unbiased random walk, this should reflect bitcoin's current price.
May 4, 4:11pm: What price will Bitcoin be when it next hits a power of 10? → Current bitcoin price
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ78 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
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@BoltonBailey there seems to be a bug with the AMM pricing function here, currently BTC=41.2k so price should be log10(41.2)-1 = ~61.5%, yet the AMM is making me pay like 92%. Any ideas?
Edit: and yet the chart looks ok, seems to me about 60% of the scale.
@deagol Yeah that's weird I see it too. Maybe "Shares" doesn't mean "things that pay out 1 if it resolves to 100k"?
@BoltonBailey that seems unlikely to me. I’m buying it down closer to the right pricing despite the value not matching BTC, now BTC just needs to crash to 10k and I’ll be rich! 😆
@BoltonBailey so at 12k seems priced ~69%, not sure how to exploit this for profit… but I suppose you might decide to NA it. Does it happen with other log-scaled numerical markets?
@BoltonBailey btw the pricing function seems as if the lower bound was 10 instead of 10k