Smart contracts on Manifold by end of 2026?
Basic
7
Ṁ131
2027
15%
chance

Resolves YES if on the close date, it is possible for a user to code and then deploy a smart contract to Manifold. Smart contracts should have following capabilities:

  • Hold mana and market shares

  • Make bets

  • Carry out Turing-complete computations, (perhaps constrained by some kind of gas metering to prevent using too much server compute).

  • Store state that can be retrieved when the contract is called in the future (perhaps also limited somehow).

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Here's a very simple use case for a good smart contract bot. You managram it money and it maintains a balance for you. Then on any market, you can comment something like "@smartcontractbot <this market> resolves the same as <other market> 10" and then the bot automatically sets 10 mana from your balance aside for risk-free arbing those markets to have the same price. Then it returns any mana made this way to you when the markets resolve.

Would be cool, but what's the case for that, versus normal bots?

@CamillePerrin 🤷 One could ask the same question of almost the entire cryptocurrency industry.

@CamillePerrin I guess for a more serious answer, I would not feel very comfortable running a smart contract bot myself because I do not know how to maintain a server with 99% uptime and I don't want to be holding people's money in a way they can't withdraw.

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