This market will resolve once a widely-accepted proof exists that EXP does or does not equal PSPACE.
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Related questions
Will P vs PSPACE be resolved before P vs NP?
59% chance
Is the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
53% chance
Is normal-play dots-and-boxes PSPACE-complete (YES) or in NP (NO)?
56% chance
Is the universe infinite in extent?
66% chance
Does P = BPP?
93% chance
Is the Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
82% chance
Is the three exponentials conjecture true?
84% chance
Is Integer Factorization in P?
25% chance