What is the resolution criteria here?

It should resolve when it's proven one way or the other.

I'd like to bet it won't be proven either way (let's limit by 2030 to get this resolved at least some time).

Well, feel free to make your own market for that. If you are interested in whether important complexity-theoretic questions will be resolved in the next few decades, you might be interested in

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-p-vs-np-be-resolved-by-2043

not someone who do computer science. but i do study fundamental logic. (pre mathematical logic.) my intuition say in order to belive there are no one-way functions, you have to belive that there are no non reducible parts. this would make natural law a infinite regress.

I don’t think that follows. For a one-way function to exist, there must be a fast (P) function which mixes the input in a way which is not un-mixable efficiently. It don’t see why this would be related to reducible parts or natural law.