Will US monkeypox cases reach 100/day in 2023?
15
270Ṁ10k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if the 7-day average number of new monkeypox cases per day in the US, as reported by CDC, exceeds 100 at any time between now (late Nov. 2022) and the end of 2023.

CDC releases weekly monkeypox data that show a 7-day moving average.

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html

The moving average peaked at 456 in early August; it's now down to 13, and still decreasing.

If CDC data become available (and no equally authoritative datasource is found) I may resolve N/A or NO, based on my best judgement:

-- If it appears that the outbreak has ended and there is no (or close to no) monkeypox in the US, I will resolve NO.

-- If it appears that the data disappeared for another reason, and I can't determine whether case numbers are above 100, I will resolve N/A.

-- [If the data disappear but I have reason to be very, very confident that case numbers are over 100, I will resolve YES; but I can't imagine a realistic scenario where this happens.]

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