Resolves to YES if the 7-day average number of new monkeypox cases per day in the US, as reported by CDC, exceeds 100 at any time between now (late Nov. 2022) and the end of 2023.
CDC releases weekly monkeypox data that show a 7-day moving average.
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html
The moving average peaked at 456 in early August; it's now down to 13, and still decreasing.
If CDC data become available (and no equally authoritative datasource is found) I may resolve N/A or NO, based on my best judgement:
-- If it appears that the outbreak has ended and there is no (or close to no) monkeypox in the US, I will resolve NO.
-- If it appears that the data disappeared for another reason, and I can't determine whether case numbers are above 100, I will resolve N/A.
-- [If the data disappear but I have reason to be very, very confident that case numbers are over 100, I will resolve YES; but I can't imagine a realistic scenario where this happens.]
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@egroj What are you asking? Are you suggesting that I resolve this early? I prefer to wait until the close date just to be safe. Are you asking how I will resolve, assuming they report 0 cases through all of 2023? Since 0 is less than 100, I will resolve NO.
@Boklam sorry, I missed this comment. I was asking if you would resolve early if the outbreak appears to have ended, but you already answered that you prefer to wait until the close date.
@egroj The outbreak has almost ended in the US (and, AFAICT, in Canada and Europe) but remains active in Latin America. It's plausible that it could come back in the US by the end of the year, especially if there turn out to be seasonal effects.
Hard to find good data but:
WHO shows quite a few new cases in Brazil and Mexico
https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/mpx_global/_w_40365bca/#section-global
On the other hand, the US is down to ~2 new cases per day
Canada has not reported any new cases since late December
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/mpox/outbreak-update.html#a1
(click on "Map data is available in ... .json")
Germany's outbreak appeared to have ended (<=2 new cases per week starting 2022 Week 44, no new cases starting Week 50) but they have had a (small) resurgence and reported 7 last week.
https://survstat.rki.de (you have to set up a search query, the system is in English but the name of the disease is "Affenpocken")
@Boklam I have a bunch of markets for mpox in the world and the US for example:
I use as source https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox they have data for each country.
@Boklam I don't see why it could be seasonal, it is a very different type of transmission compared to respiratory viruses. In fact just bought more NO shares on your other market:
@egroj I agree with you, it seems very likely that this market will end up resolving NO. I mostly just think it's good form to wait until the end of the year.
And yes, I was kind of expecting someone would push that other market further down :)
