In comments on the market linked below I have been trying, and failing, to explain shares and subsidies.
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-i-fall-in-love-by-the-end-of-2
This market resolves to YES if someone writes an explanation of shares that is, in my entirely subjective judgement, clear, correct and complete.
If there's already such an explanation in the docs, just post a link.
Close date updated to 2023-02-01 5:59 pm
Jan 17, 2:04am: Will somebody write a sensible explanation of how Manifold shares work? → Will somebody write a clear explanation of how Manifold shares work?
Close date updated to 2023-01-22 3:44 pm
Close date updated to 2023-01-22 3:48 pm
1,000
3.00lemme try from our discussion on the other market:
A share is a unit of ownership of a position. In a binary market, we have 2 positions - YES and NO. A YES share is equivalent to 1 unit of ownership of the YES position, and a NO share is equivalent to 1 unit of ownership of the NO position.
Each correct position's share is worth 1 Mana and each incorrect position's share is worth 0 Mana once market is resolved.
Before the market is resolved, we can buy shares of either position, and the less likely a position is estimated to be the correct position, the cheaper its shares are. Similarly, the more likely a position is estimated (by the people in the market) to be correct, the more expensive its shares are.
The total Mana used (injected into the market by buying a share, or taken out, by selling) in the market = market volume.
The total Mana in the market at any given time = Liquidity of the market.
In general, if the probability of a position is estimated by the market to be p%, but you think (or know) it is either 100% (aka the correct resolution) or more than p%, then you should buy the shares of that position, until either the mis-pricing of the positions is resolved, or the market itself is resolved.
@firstuserhere OK, I'm happy. This is different from what I would have written, and yours is probably better, especially for newcomers.
@Boklam follow up Q: can we look at the currency supply (not play mana, but our real currency) and say that the world is sort of a huge prediction market with some dynamic seed and YES and NO (or deflation and inflation rates) shares being a part of the dynamic pool created by the seed, and each share rising or falling in value determined by some sort of consensus?