Will it be possible to short a position on a Yes/No market by Feb. 15?
15
360Ṁ6146
resolved Feb 25
Resolved
NO

Will I be able to take a short position in a Yes/No market Feb. 15, 2023?

Shorting YES is different from buying NO because buying NO ties up a lot of capital. The difference is most significant when the probability is very close to 0.

I think (correct me in the comments if I'm wrong!) being able to short YES (when the probability is very low) is equivalent to the following policy: (1) if you buy NO at a low prob, most of your cost is immediately loaned back to you, and (2) if the probability rises significantly, your position will be liquidated, i.e. you are forced to sell the NO to repay the loan. (Unless someone convinces me I'm wrong) such a policy, equivalent to shorting, will also cause this market to resolve YES.

Fine print: Resolves based on what's possible midnight California time the night of Feb. 14 / morning of Feb. 15. If (for some weird reason) I'm allowed to short one direction but not the other (YES but not NO, or vice-versa) that still counts and I will resolve to YES. I used the first-person pronoun, but in fact the market resolves based on what a regular default user with no special privileges or bans is allowed to do.

Related market -- same question, but for free response markets instead of yes/no markets.

https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-it-be-possible-to-short-an-ans-9b304a614ba4

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