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MANIFOLD
Average timezone of manifold users?
19
Ṁ370Ṁ415
resolved Mar 19
Resolved as
45%

Resolves prob to the average timezone that voters on this poll live in: https://manifold.markets/Bohreromir/what-timezone-are-you-in-4459d6b7c10d?r=Qm9ocmVyb21pcg

0% : All live in utc -12

4% : UTC -11

8% : UTC -10

[...]

100% : All live in utc +12

SUM(Nr. votes * Percentage)/ Nr. of total votes

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Shouldn't there actually be more options than UTC-12 to UTC+12? The earliest time zone is UTC+14:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTC%2B14:00

I think you might be off by one. From 0 to 100, there are 26 integers divisible by 4. From -12 to 12, there are 25 integers. How do you assign the 26 numbers to the 25 numbers?

@AdorjanKovacs ugh, I thought this error would cancel out with the fact that there are offsets greater than +12, but it doesn't 😭

Edit: no, wait, it kinda does! We could do prob(offset) = ceil(100, 4 * (12 + offset)).

This doesn't even need to be limited to integers, India is literally the most populous country on Earth and it's on +5:30, so the probability there would be (4 * (5.5 + 12)) = 70%. The ceiling function in the formula bundles together all the 0 people on the +13, +13:45 and +14 time zones.

The issue with that is that it breaks the intuition that UTC should be 50% and +12 should be 100%.

@BrunoParga Actually this would also handle UTC+13 as well, that would just be 100%.

@AdorjanKovacs thanks for noticing. I'll use @BrunoPargas formula for the resolution.

> 100% : All live in utc +12

This is erasure of my Polynesian bois whose offset is >12:00.

@BrunoParga woops, I didn't know that was a thing

@Bohreromir it is a weird thing indeed. There is probably nobody living there here on Manifold, but if there is they can probably use +12.