
Resolves prob to the average timezone that voters on this poll live in: https://manifold.markets/Bohreromir/what-timezone-are-you-in-4459d6b7c10d?r=Qm9ocmVyb21pcg
0% : All live in utc -12
4% : UTC -11
8% : UTC -10
[...]
100% : All live in utc +12
SUM(Nr. votes * Percentage)/ Nr. of total votes
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Shouldn't there actually be more options than UTC-12 to UTC+12? The earliest time zone is UTC+14:
@AdorjanKovacs ugh, I thought this error would cancel out with the fact that there are offsets greater than +12, but it doesn't 😭
Edit: no, wait, it kinda does! We could do prob(offset) = ceil(100, 4 * (12 + offset)).
This doesn't even need to be limited to integers, India is literally the most populous country on Earth and it's on +5:30, so the probability there would be (4 * (5.5 + 12)) = 70%. The ceiling function in the formula bundles together all the 0 people on the +13, +13:45 and +14 time zones.
The issue with that is that it breaks the intuition that UTC should be 50% and +12 should be 100%.
@Bohreromir it is a weird thing indeed. There is probably nobody living there here on Manifold, but if there is they can probably use +12.