Will US inflation increase before unemployment decreases?
11
1kṀ1893resolved Oct 4
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 1% or more (YES) before the unemployment rate decreases by 0.2% or more (NO)?
In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?
Unemployment as of Aug 2 was 4.3% in July, up 0.2% from the previous release. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.
Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released on the second Wednesday of every month. CPI released August 14 is 2.9%, down from over 8% last month but still above pre-pandemic levels.
I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ211 | |
| 2 | Ṁ157 | |
| 3 | Ṁ85 | |
| 4 | Ṁ71 | |
| 5 | Ṁ21 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?
83% chance
Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?
75% chance
Will US inflation be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?
88% chance
Will the United States' inflation rate be above 3% in 2023, 2024, and 2025?
26% chance
Will US inflation be over 4% for the next 5 years?
3% chance
Will inflation in the US rise above 10% at some point during the second Trump presidency?
24% chance