Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 1% or more (YES) before the unemployment rate decreases by 0.2% or more (NO)?
In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?
Unemployment as of Aug 2 was 4.3% in July, up 0.2% from the previous release. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.
Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released on the second Wednesday of every month. CPI released August 14 is 2.9%, down from over 8% last month but still above pre-pandemic levels.
I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.
1,000
3.00The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Not a 1% or more increase. Thus we continue. Next release is new unemployment numbers on Oct 4.
@summer_of_bliss So this is a good question. A monthly increase of 1% over what it was when the market was created, so if the next month shows a 0.8% increase that is sufficient.
@BlueDragon Great thanks. And the unemployment rate needs to hit 4.1% or less? If the unemployment rate hits say 5% then 4.5% would this count as a no?