Will US inflation increase before unemployment decreases?
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Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 1% or more (YES) before the unemployment rate decreases by 0.2% or more (NO)?

In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?

Unemployment as of Aug 2 was 4.3% in July, up 0.2% from the previous release. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.

Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released on the second Wednesday of every month. CPI released August 14 is 2.9%, down from over 8% last month but still above pre-pandemic levels.

I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.

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reposted 
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted
basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12
months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Not a 1% or more increase. Thus we continue. Next release is new unemployment numbers on Oct 4.

Unemployment numbers released today show a rate of 4.2%, a 0.1% decrease since July, which is not enough to resolve this market. Extending to Sep 11, when inflation numbers are next released.

reposted

Close date currently set to September 6, when revised unemployment rate comes out.

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