Will this year’s Google I/O bump the price of GOOGL?
Will this year’s Google I/O bump the price of GOOGL?
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580Ṁ1038resolved May 16
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Last year, the Alphabet stock price rose about 9% during and after Google I/O.
But as of late March 2024, [a non-representative sample of] Manifolders are betting against Google’s ability to pull that off again.
Will this year’s Google I/O deliver any stock price boost?
Google I/O is May 14, 2024.
Resolved by comparing the opening stock price of Alphabet’s Class A stock GOOGL on May 14 to the opening stock price on May 16, to allow for one full day of trading and after hours trades on either end..
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.