Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
💎
Premium
28
Ṁ13k
Jan 1
46%
chance

I’ve been a cartographer working in tech for the past 10+ years, primarily building global base maps for mobile and web applications. I left my last job recently. It’s time for me to pivot, but I’m not sure where to go next. I have an intuition that might be wrong. Will Manifold help me find direction?

I have been casually using this platform for about six months as a tool for learning and personal growth. I’ve enjoyed the way the Manifold economy encourages market efficiency through collaborative communication. As with real world currencies beyond the basics, I believe Mana should be means to an end and that end should be learning, growth, building, compassion, recreation, and amusement. More on my personal approach:

  • I don’t work super hard to optimize my trades or my calibration

  • I make markets to interact with other users, thanks for being here!

  • I sometimes make dashboards and do research on markets that interest me

  • I sometimes do arbitrage and sometimes drop Mana to see what comes of a hot take

  • I try to limit the time I spend on this platform to an amount that feels sustainable to me and my life offline

I don’t know what will come of the changes to the platform in the coming year, and how much these will affect me and my project. I hope that these transactions will help me pick a path based on what I know, care about, and the world needs, but there is every reason to believe I’m being naive.

In my career worked for and consulted for global companies. I’ve maintained assets and massive code repositories, deployed to billions of users, improved workflows, implemented new features, managed teams and individuals, built programs, negotiated million $ contracts, all in the service of creating an information design that facilitates interaction, search, navigation, and anything else you would do with a digital reference map. I’ve learned a lot in this niche, it sounds cool and it has been, but it’s narrow, and I’m a dilettante, not a coder or data scientist or product manager or designer in the ways that others more squarely in those roles would recognize.

What I’m curious about now is climate tech, energy transitions, and economic and social transformations that seem completely necessary for continued human flourishing. I approach these things as a modestly well-informed geographer, environmental scientist, and technologist. I welcome your comments, questions, personal perspectives, research and experience here and in my other markets and across the platform.

Resolves YES if at the end of 2024 I have a plan and a direction for my future career.

Resolves NO otherwise.

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bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@BlueDragon any updates?

@Bayesian thanks for your interest and investment! Things are trending in a good direction.

@BlueDragon a direction that would indicate a likely YES resolution? 😅

Resolves YES if at the end of 2024 I have a plan and a direction for my future career.

does it resolve yes if you do but it's not because of manifold? or?

@jacksonpolack causality is difficult to determine, but I am still here.

Yes the market resolves as stated, based on whether I have a plan and a direction for my career.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Go for it! With six months experience you already have a sense for which aspects of prediction markets appeal to you— if you were to parlay that experience into your next potential role, can you see yourself becoming passionate on those aspects?

Wishing you all the best!

@SusanneinFrance thanks! To answer your question, I don’t anticipate a career in predictive markets, but I am passionate about rational communication, kindness, and fairness.

bought Ṁ250 YES

I hope so. I hope markets like this become a regular thing and help us connect the right people together to build an amazing future.

I've been thinking of just the right framing for a similar market for myself.

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