Which women will vote for Trump?
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Plus
172
Ṁ28k
resolved Nov 11
Resolved
YES
White women
Resolved
YES
Married women
Resolved
YES
Catholic women
Resolved
YES
Rural women
Resolved
50%
Arizona women
Resolved
50%
Ohio women
Resolved
50%
Southern women
Resolved
N/A
Full time working women
Resolved
NO
Black women
Resolved
NO
Gen Z women
Resolved
NO
Suburban women
Resolved
NO
Women with a college degree
Resolved
NO
Latinas
Resolved
NO
North Carolina women
Resolved
NO
Women over 65

Will Trump be able to persuade a majority of women in any demographic group to vote for him this November?

Add responses! These should be something we can verify with a reputable poll.

Resolves based on CNN exit polls (or other credible polling data where CNN didn’t poll the specific segment).

YES if more than 50% of respondents in that group say they voted for Trump.

NO if more than 50% say they voted for Harris.

PARTIAL if no one got more than 50% AND Trump got a plurality, resolved to the % who say they voted for Trump (e.g. 49%)

N/A if there is no available polling.

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The lone bulwark never fails.

@traders It appears CNN didn’t ask the question this year about whether respondents were working, and none of the other exit polls I found listed it either. If anyone sees a resolution for this, please share! Otherwise I will N/A it next week.

bought Ṁ50 NO

I don't see single women anywhere. Ooops, I know why. 🤣🤣🤣

reposted

Added a couple more: “Women from the South” and “Women over 65”

2020 exit polls:

reposted

@Kraalnaxx

Does morality play no role in modern Christian communities anymore? Trump is like the polar opposite to Jesus. Why do they all believe he is the chosen one?

Note that Biden carried Catholic women in the 2020 election, which makes sense since he is a Catholic.

I anticipate this is as high as it is because people expect Catholic women to vote based on abortion. Personally I’m not sure, since American Catholics span the political spectrum.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Sampling bias, but my wife and a fair share of her huge catholic family are socialist democrats.

@BlueDragon probably because they outsource decision making to their husbands

I know some serious alpha women conservatives who voted for Trump because they are against woke liberals and unmoved by pink hats and porn stars.

Let’s see if they can handle Vance. I don’t know but I’m about to vote no.

@traders I clarified the resolution criteria just now, reply with comments, questions, etc.

Notably I added a specific default resolution source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

bought Ṁ100 YES

Trump won white women 47 - 45 in 2016 and 53 - 46 in 2020

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

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