Which state ballot propositions to guarantee abortion rights will pass?
Basic
19
3.5k
Nov 6
91%
Maryland
90%
Colorado
82%
Arizona
76%
Nevada
66%
Florida
66%
South Dakota
63%
Montana
50%
Missouri
50%
Arkansas
50%
Nebraska
50%
Pennsylvania
47%
New York

As of this writing, propositions are proposed in 12 states, including Pennsylvania where the proposal is to limit public funding of abortion, but so far only on the ballot officially in Colorado, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota (per this round-up of pending ballot initiatives).

  • Resolves NO of a proposition doesn’t qualify for the ballot, or doesn’t guarantee abortion access

  • Resolves NO if the proposition doesn’t pass in November

  • Resolves YES if the proposition qualifies and passes

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As of this writing, propositions are proposed in 12 states, including Pennsylvania where the proposal is to limit public funding of abortion, but so far only on the ballot officially in Colorado, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota (per this round-up of pending ballot initiatives).

  • Resolves NO of a proposition doesn’t qualify for the ballot, or doesn’t guarantee abortion access

  • Resolves NO if the proposition doesn’t pass in November

  • Resolves YES if the proposition qualifies and passes

reposted

Added Missouri, Arkansas, and Nebraska per this round-up of pending ballot initiatives.

Some markets may resolve NO in late June or July if they haven't qualified for the ballot by then. As of this writing, propositions are only on the ballot officially in Colorado, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota.

@BlueDragon @traders looking for your input on how to resolve for states where the proposition doesn’t make it on the ballot. I’m thinking the fairest is to resolve NA, but curious if anyone thinks it should resolve NO?

See above, states with ballot proposals that are not fully qualified: Arizona, Nevada, New York, Montana Missouri, Arkansas, Nebraska.

@BlueDragon Manifold has remove the option for N/A.

Either way I think it would be fairest to resolve NO as long as a proposition doesn’t pass, even if the cause of that is not making the ballot.

@CharlieBauer Ah! Thanks I missed that in the flurry of announcements.

Ok so the options are Partial % or NO for this case. Traders, please note. Clearly NO makes more sense. The deadlines are typically in late June and early July. I will update the description.

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