Which state ballot propositions to protect abortion rights will pass?
As of this writing, per The NY Times, “reproductive rights groups have put abortion rights amendments on the ballots of 11 of the 17 states that allow citizens to sponsor amendments — save three that broadly protect abortion access (Illinois, Massachusetts and Oregon) and three that have near-total bans (Arkansas, North Dakota and Oklahoma.).” Nebraska has two ballot measures, one for and one against.
Resolves NO of a proposition doesn’t qualify for the ballot, or doesn’t guarantee abortion access
Resolves NO if the proposition doesn’t pass in November
Resolves YES if the proposition qualifies and passes
1,000
3.00I’m betting yes based on this Google Trends comparison showing Montana is one of the few states where people are more concerned about abortion than immigration.
Of course this could also be very strong opposition to the ballot measure.
Abortion stayed on the Missouri ballot!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/09/10/missouri-abortion-amendment-november-ballot-court/
Missouri Supreme Court is expected to have the final say tomorrow but…
https://thehill.com/newsletters/health-care/4870569-missouri-abortion-measure-invalid-judge-rules/
11 states have abortion on the ballot (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) in 2024. This is the most on record for a single year.
Which ones will pass?
In 2022, there were six, half passed (California, Michigan, and Vermont) and half didn’t (Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana).
A lot is changed just two years later….
Plus voter turnout?
Purple states?
Place your bets now if you have any hunches on how this is going to go.
Proponents of an abortion rights measure failed in one state, Arkansas, on Thursday after the secretary of state said they did not submit proper paperwork regarding petitions circulated by paid canvassers
Voter-initiated ballot measures have already been approved for the November ballot in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and South Dakota. In Maryland and New York, legislators have put forward ballots measures that add abortion-related protections to the state constitutions.
The signatures submitted in Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana and Nebraska still need to be certified by the states before the measures appear on the November ballot. Any of these measures could also be challenged in court.
As of this writing, propositions are proposed in 12 states, including Pennsylvania where the proposal is to limit public funding of abortion, but so far only on the ballot officially in Colorado, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota (per this round-up of pending ballot initiatives).
Resolves NO of a proposition doesn’t qualify for the ballot, or doesn’t guarantee abortion access
Resolves NO if the proposition doesn’t pass in November
Resolves YES if the proposition qualifies and passes
Added Missouri, Arkansas, and Nebraska per this round-up of pending ballot initiatives.
Some markets may resolve NO in late June or July if they haven't qualified for the ballot by then. As of this writing, propositions are only on the ballot officially in Colorado, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota.
@BlueDragon @traders looking for your input on how to resolve for states where the proposition doesn’t make it on the ballot. I’m thinking the fairest is to resolve NA, but curious if anyone thinks it should resolve NO?
See above, states with ballot proposals that are not fully qualified: Arizona, Nevada, New York, Montana Missouri, Arkansas, Nebraska.
@BlueDragon Manifold has remove the option for N/A.
Either way I think it would be fairest to resolve NO as long as a proposition doesn’t pass, even if the cause of that is not making the ballot.
@CharlieBauer Ah! Thanks I missed that in the flurry of announcements.
Ok so the options are Partial % or NO for this case. Traders, please note. Clearly NO makes more sense. The deadlines are typically in late June and early July. I will update the description.