Starfield vs Garfield : Who will be more popular on Jan 1st 2024?
53
626
925
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
YES

The Cat Comic VS The most expensive Game Development Endaevour of all time...

Using the Above trend settings, Will the time span containing Jan1st 2024, have Starfield outperforming Garfield in search terms?

In this example below, it shows the results for the span Jun11-17.

For Market Resolution, I will measure the span containing Jan 1st, 2024.

Resolves YES if Starfield is higher

Resolves NO if Garfield is higher

EDIT 1: adding link

EDIT 2: fixing link (should be worldwide, not US) https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=starfield,garfield&hl=en

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starfield comes out on top

market closed but I'm waiting for the new span to appear with Jan 1st in it

Shameless plug (rhyming words and google trends is close enough, right?) Lots of votes coming in here, but disappointingly nobody cares about Jerry Seinfeld's potential comeback against Hailee Steinfeld....

Here is a more restrictive market measuring the exact 10AM time . whereas above, like the examples I posted, the measurement will fall inside a week span, zoomed out at the 'Past 12 Months' timeline

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Looking like a pretty close race. Starfield peaked in September and now has a steady downward trend, but its asymptote appears to be right around Garfield levels of search interest.

predicted NO

@PlasmaBallin More data: There is a clear weekly pattern in starfield searches. Sundays are the strongest day, with a significant drop off after that which continues throughout the week until the next Saturday. Meanwhile Garfield doesn't have any obvious weekly pattern (even when I remove the starfield comparison so I can see it better)

Jan. 1 is a Monday, so it should be about average.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@Blomfilter It will be ironic if garfield wins

predicted YES

A new Garfield film will be released May 24, 2024. If the marketing campaign for this film continues to gain momentum, this will have an impact on the number of searches. When the first trailer was released a few days ago, Garfield briefly overtook Starfield in searches. There is also a clear downward trend in the popularity of Starfield.

bought Ṁ20 NO from 64% to 61%
predicted NO

I was inspired by your market:

bought Ṁ40 of YES

Christmas and New Year are boom times for video games. Even older titles have more searches than Garfield around this time. I see this market at 95%, even though I have a thing for cats and Starfield was very disappointing.

Edit: Let's say 70%.

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