https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1702079713622299100
how many likes will Tucker Carlson Ep 23 get after 1 week?
*** POOR MANS EDITION: YOU PAY MANA TO ADD ANSWERS!!!! ****[0]
Likes determined by Heart icons on Twitter/X
only answers in the form XXXK will be accepted, where X is a number from 0-9
accepted answer examples:
190K, 289K
unaccepted answer examples:
190, 289, π ,some_text
Any decimals will be rounded up.
If the final count ends up being 198.1K. I will round up to 199K.
If the likes go above 1M, I will resolve as 999K.
I wont accept "OTHER" as an answer at resolution.
If no one submits the correct anwer in the above form of XXXK, I will resolve as "No one inputs the right answer." aka NOITRA
==== Bonus Modifier Section =====
At time of resolution..
1) If BonusModifier1 (BM1) is greater in % than BonusModifier2 (BM2), I will accept the next highest answer to what is the original answer.
Ex: If the Post has 155.5K Likes, that normall rounds up to 156K, but in the case BM1 > BM2. 156K -> 157K likes. If no one has answered 157K Likes, I will resolve as NOITRA.
2) If BonusModifier1 (BM1) is EQUAL or LESS in % than BonusModifier2 (BM2). I will accept the original answer.
Ex: if Post has 155.5K Likes. BM1=50, BM2=50, then 155.5K -> 156K Likes, I will resolve as 156K. (same if 156K doesnt exist, its NOITRA)
Strategy Note:
By betting "OTHER" you will be assigned mana to all future choices. Some people may want to hold off on putting down predictions in hope that their "OTHER" bet hits that mark in the future.
prev: [ ep22, ep21, ep20, ep19, ep18, ep17, ep16, ep15, ep14, ep13, ep12, ep11, ]
The Value is determined by what the Twitter/X website shows in their tweet count preview when viewing the tweet (Its up to their code to determine how 150050, renders out to K units, rounding down, or rounding up).
[0] I spent all my mana betting that spaceX would launch this month.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ96 | |
| 2 | αΉ58 | |
| 3 | αΉ13 | |
| 4 | αΉ1 | |
| 5 | αΉ0 |
final like count: 198.7K
Rounded up: 199K
BonusModifier Modification: 200K
Breakdown of calculation:
BM1 > BM2 ? Yes, since BM1 = 1.4% and BM2 - 0.3%
In the example in description:
Ex: If the Post has 155.5K Likes, that normall rounds up to 156K, but in the case BM1 > BM2. 156K -> 157K likes. If no one has answered 157K Likes, I will resolve as NOITRA.
Plugging in our markets numbers:
Ex: If the Post has 198.7K Likes, that normall rounds up to 199K, but in the case BM1 > BM2.
199K -> 200K likes. If no one has answered 200K Likes, I will resolve as NOITRA.
Someone had answered 200K, so I'm going to resolve it as '200K' tomorrow.
@Blomfilter You're right, I was wrong (I hallucinated that BM2 was higher than BM1 or maybe I mixed up what the two did).
[automated test] status snapshot for: 2023-09-15 23:54 (Eastern Time) :
won't be continuing due to daytime work getting a bit crazy this coming months...
next episode 24 for anyone else who is interested:
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1702442099814342725
@Blomfilter Without reading the description I can tell this will be as complicated to try to max profit as any of the other quantitative work I have done on other markets.
@parhizj yeah, feel free to skip if u want haha, if the correct XXXK range is known at time of closing, the BM1/BM2 makes it so its a pseudo-cointoss at the last moment on who can push the scales higher at last second in order to hit XXXK or XXXK+1. Maybe it would be more entertaining to close markets N hours in advance, like some of the Crypto markets, so it leaves more of a 'prediction' flavour instead of jamming in weightings at last minutes etc..
I think theres so much potential to make markets more interesting like this, with meta rules , but still betting on some arbitrary mundane integer from a real world event lol