How many likes will Tucker Carlson Episode 23 on Twitter/X get after 1 week?
9
resolved Sep 21
200K
100%27%
199K
64%
Bonus Modifier 2 (BM2)
0.3%
999K
0.2%
Other
3%
201K
1.5%
No one inputs the right answer. (NOITRA)
1.1%
202K
1.6%
Bonus Modifier 1 (BM1)
1.4%

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1702079713622299100

how many likes will Tucker Carlson Ep 23 get after 1 week?

*** POOR MANS EDITION: YOU PAY MANA TO ADD ANSWERS!!!! ****[0]

Likes determined by Heart icons on Twitter/X

only answers in the form XXXK will be accepted, where X is a number from 0-9

accepted answer examples:

190K, 289K

unaccepted answer examples:

190, 289, 🐝 ,some_text

Any decimals will be rounded up.

If the final count ends up being 198.1K. I will round up to 199K.

If the likes go above 1M, I will resolve as 999K.

I wont accept "OTHER" as an answer at resolution.

If no one submits the correct anwer in the above form of XXXK, I will resolve as "No one inputs the right answer." aka NOITRA

==== Bonus Modifier Section =====

At time of resolution..

1) If BonusModifier1 (BM1) is greater in % than BonusModifier2 (BM2), I will accept the next highest answer to what is the original answer.

Ex: If the Post has 155.5K Likes, that normall rounds up to 156K, but in the case BM1 > BM2. 156K -> 157K likes. If no one has answered 157K Likes, I will resolve as NOITRA.

2) If BonusModifier1 (BM1) is EQUAL or LESS in % than BonusModifier2 (BM2). I will accept the original answer.

Ex: if Post has 155.5K Likes. BM1=50, BM2=50, then 155.5K -> 156K Likes, I will resolve as 156K. (same if 156K doesnt exist, its NOITRA)

Strategy Note:

By betting "OTHER" you will be assigned mana to all future choices. Some people may want to hold off on putting down predictions in hope that their "OTHER" bet hits that mark in the future.

prev: [ ep22, ep21, ep20, ep19, ep18, ep17, ep16, ep15, ep14, ep13, ep12, ep11, ]

The Value is determined by what the Twitter/X website shows in their tweet count preview when viewing the tweet (Its up to their code to determine how 150050, renders out to K units, rounding down, or rounding up).

[0] I spent all my mana betting that spaceX would launch this month.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter 🤖

[automated test] status snapshot for: 2023-09-21 22:00:

1 reply
Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

@Blomfilter whoops lol kills bot

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

final like count: 198.7K

Rounded up: 199K

BonusModifier Modification: 200K

Breakdown of calculation:

BM1 > BM2 ? Yes, since BM1 = 1.4% and BM2 - 0.3%

In the example in description:

Ex: If the Post has 155.5K Likes, that normall rounds up to 156K, but in the case BM1 > BM2. 156K -> 157K likes. If no one has answered 157K Likes, I will resolve as NOITRA.

Plugging in our markets numbers:

Ex: If the Post has 198.7K Likes, that normall rounds up to 199K, but in the case BM1 > BM2.

199K -> 200K likes. If no one has answered 200K Likes, I will resolve as NOITRA.

Someone had answered 200K, so I'm going to resolve it as '200K' tomorrow.

parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter Should resolve to 199k per your Byzantine rules 🙂

2 replies
Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

@parhizj i think its 200K according to rule 1, I tried to give breakdown in above comment

parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter You're right, I was wrong (I hallucinated that BM2 was higher than BM1 or maybe I mixed up what the two did).

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter 🤖

[automated test] status snapshot for: 2023-09-20 22:00:

1 reply
parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter Your script worked

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter 🤖

[automated test] status snapshot for: 2023-09-19 22:00:

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter 🤖

[automated test] status snapshot for: 2023-09-18 22:00 (UTC):

2 replies
Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

ok this is too funny, somehow it screenshotted page, correct location, but now this time, the likes didn't render

parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter try loading it in an incognito window ?

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter 🤖

[automated test] status snapshot for: 2023-09-15 23:54 (Eastern Time) :

2 replies
bohaska avatar
Bohaskabought Ṁ1 of No one inputs the ri... YES

@Blomfilter Didn't take a pic of the likes ☠

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

@bohaska LOL work in progress 😂 , next cronjobs gonna nail it!

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

won't be continuing due to daytime work getting a bit crazy this coming months...

next episode 24 for anyone else who is interested:
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1702442099814342725

1 reply
parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter Musk just retweeted it too..

parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter Without reading the description I can tell this will be as complicated to try to max profit as any of the other quantitative work I have done on other markets.

2 replies
Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilter

@parhizj yeah, feel free to skip if u want haha, if the correct XXXK range is known at time of closing, the BM1/BM2 makes it so its a pseudo-cointoss at the last moment on who can push the scales higher at last second in order to hit XXXK or XXXK+1. Maybe it would be more entertaining to close markets N hours in advance, like some of the Crypto markets, so it leaves more of a 'prediction' flavour instead of jamming in weightings at last minutes etc..

I think theres so much potential to make markets more interesting like this, with meta rules , but still betting on some arbitrary mundane integer from a real world event lol

parhizj avatar
JRP

@Blomfilter Are you an alt of Levi or something 🤣 ?