Will Type III Superconductivity Theory be proven before 2025?
Dec 31

Type III Superconductivity Theory is an exploratory supplement to Type I and Type II Superconductivity Theory.

Paper link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.14673

In this theory, the authors claim that Type III Superconductivity can't have true Meissner effect.
In type III superconductors Hc1 = 0 and vortices, which, as mentioned above, in this case do not possess normal core, can penetrate at any magnetic field (corresponding to a flux at least equal to a quantum flux), and there is no true Meissner state.

P.S. This paper was already published as early as March this year, so it doesn't have a direct relationship with the current hot topic of Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor LK-99.

Well, to your possible concern, I think this bet will get "Yes" if the specific Paper "Type III superconductivity"(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.14673) is widely accepted by other scientists and papers, especially we can find it easily in wiki "Superconductivity" like Type I & II. And in other situations, it will be "No".

So I have to say it's really high risky to bet "Yes"......Hold your hands before bet "Yes"!
(Sorry for the persons already bought "Yes".....)

Q: What if there was another "Third Type SC", not this one, proven in the future?
A: Still check the wiki, if the wiki says the paper 2303.14673 still contributes a lot in that situation, then "Yes", otherwise "No". I think the wiki editors group may be far more professional than any single one's opinion. But if there are authoritative experts among you guys, we can listen to him/her then after all.

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How does this resolve? Somebody must synthesize a material that is a type 3 superconductor, which must be replicated by independent labs?

@Mira I bet Yes in the previous question, so in my mind I truely believe the LK-99 can bring some extra light to Superconductivity Theories at least (even it was proven as a fake SC😢)
By this, persons may try to find other possible theories for guiding new materials experiments.
Then I came to this.

@BliKiniKilB How do you decide whether this question resolves YES or NO in 2025? In other words, what does "proven" mean for you?

On Manifold, the person that creates a question decides the conditions that it will resolve. And usually you put those conditions in the market description so the bettors can predict whether they will happen.

predicts YES

@Mira oh, sorry for my misunderstanding. I get yours.
I would like to ask for some advices from experts in related fields till then.
But I think if it was proven, the most easy way is to check wiki page "Superconductivity" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) and find whether the editors fill in Type III SC theory and this paper, and even more related papers proving that.