Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a giant panda cub is born in a United States zoo at any point during the calendar year 2026. The birth must be confirmed by official announcement from the zoo where it occurs. Resolution will be verified through official zoo statements, press releases, or announcements from the Smithsonian's National Zoo, the Memphis Zoo, Zoo Atlanta, or the San Diego Zoo. The market resolves NO if no panda birth occurs in a U.S. zoo during 2026.

Background

The Smithsonian's National Zoo recently welcomed two young giant pandas, Qing Bao (female) and Bao Li (male), who made their official public debut on January 24, 2025. Both pandas are 3 years old and still too young to breed, as pandas only reach sexual maturity around 5-6 years of age. The San Diego Zoo received a breeding pair, Yun Chuan and Xin Bao, in June 2024, marking the first giant pandas to enter the U.S. in 21 years. At the National Zoo, four artificial inseminations have resulted in successful births: Tai Shan in 2005, Bao Bao in 2013, Bei Bei in 2015, and Xiao Qi Ji in 2020.

Considerations

Any cubs born at U.S. zoos will move to China by the age of 4 as part of breeding agreements with the China Wildlife Conservation Association. Giant pandas have naturally low reproductive rates and breeding success in captivity depends on careful management, artificial insemination, and favorable conditions. The giant pandas' naturally slow breeding rate prevents a population from recovering quickly from illegal hunting, habitat loss and other human-related causes of mortality.