According to the criteria set by ABC on 5/15/2024 here.

Whether or not:

• The criteria change

• The debate is cancelled

• RFK Jr. ends up participating

"To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet ABC's standards for reporting. Information on moderators, format and additional details will be provided at a later date."

As far as I know, ABC has not yet specified its acceptable poll standards, polling window, or eligibility deadline. If they clarify these points, I will follow their standards when resolving this market.

If the debate is cancelled, or for some other reason ABC never clarifies these points, I will mimic CNN's criteria to resolve this market: use a 99-day polling window, CNN's standards for acceptable polls, and an eligibility deadline of 9/3/2024.